Sunday, November 20, 2005

Should Anil sell out of Infocomm??

Vodafone recently bought 10% stake in Bharti for around 7300 crores…which mean a valuation of Rs. 73000 crores that too without any controlling right. With controlling rights the price would have been even higher. Reliance Infocomm (RI) considering its intrinsic strengths will be valued higher than Bharti. International telecom players are looking to enter the Indian telecom market. Even Virgin group is willing to enter but there is no spectrum on offer and only route to entry is acquisition of existing player. Anil Ambani’s personal stake of around 66% in RI can easily fetch him Rs. 60000 crores!!!

Anil Ambani is a ‘finance wizard’ and his recent acquisition spree suggests that he dreams of becoming “the Indian Warren Buffet” and want to make Reliance Capital (RCL) the next – Bekshire Hathaway (BH). To be frank it suits him. Telecom is a full time business and requires skill set that his brother has not he. Anil Ambani needs time for his early morning jogging, late evening parties, politics and holiday with celebrities. And then his hand is already full with the full time job as MD & CEO of Reliance Energy.

It will make lot of sense for him to sell out Reliance Infocomm. With Rs. 60000 crores cash in his pocket and his funding skills he can make RCL much more powerful in Dalal Street than what BH is on Wall Street.

Given a choice I think Anil would have done it. The way he has managed RI after the settlement is nothing to write home about and even the im*****t Tata is performing better. He knows his limitations. But the problem is – if he sells out now it would be like admitting that he is less capable than his brother. Everybody including me will pass the judgment that he was incompetent to manage RI and that is something he donot wish to happen.

So what is the alternative in front of him –
Partner with some international telecom giant and act as a sleeping partner
Sell out and answer the critics with RCL performance
Hire a competent team to manage RI and himself concentrate on REL and RCL.

Lets wait and watch to see what he does. Mukesh, public & myself will hate him if he sells out of RI but today that is the most logical thing to do and that is what he will do. I wish he proves me wrong and help RI live up to its potential but I doubt he has the capability to do so.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Gutgutia, after 6 years you still are so much deep in Reliance, never saw someone so fanatical about a damn corp. Anyways you rememeber so much, do you rememeber someone who told you 6 years back that RIL has short future? You Laughed over it...RIL now is not the same as it was 6 Years back...he was true...what do you say of that?

Anonymous said...

sometimes i am compelled to think why was vodafone all out on sale...and then i get an answer...europe and Us have reached stagnation in telecome revolution...in india we are already ont he verge of reaaching out to them..in next decade...telecom would be dead investment..look for hisgh speed net..broadband...let reliacne concentrate on that!!

Neeraj Gutgutia said...

Hi,
I am still guessing who you are? I dont agree with you that anyway you are vindicated regarding future of Reliance. Still its the biggest private sector company in the country and its only becoming bigger...its too big an organization to be destroyed by infighting between the brothers...
...by the way atleast let me know who you are...kmite??

Anonymous said...

why has this Blog been inactive for so long? Nothing interesting happening in Reliance o wat? If not Reliance, then can we have some dope or your views on ICICI Bank atleast?