It is still advantage BJP: Let Congress worry about AAP

Everybody is talking about AAP and Arvind Kejeriwal. It’s like Bangladesh beating India in the 2007 Cricket World Cup and few Bangladeshi fans & media start believing that Bangladesh would go on to win the World Cup. Winning a tournament requires much more than flashes of brilliance. It is more about stamina and mental strength, which come only after being in the game for decently long time. I believe if AAP invests few years in building the team at grass root level, getting the chemistry between the team members right, understanding the fine line between right and practical, holding on to the standards it is preaching, it can one day become of the leading parties in India. But that will not and cannot happen by May 2014. Real contender for May 2014 world cup is still BJP under the leadership of Modi. In fact, the second rank team after the beating by AAP is looking very weak and that only increases chances for BJP.

National elections in a country as big as India cannot be won only on basis of sentiments. It requires years of work at grass root level before a party can really stake claim at the national level. I am coming across article where people are taking that AAP can win the Lok Sabha Election. According to me AAP will not be able to field 272 candidates leave alone winning 272 seats which is required to form a government at Centre. And as AAP has made it clear in Delhi that it would not form a government without clear majority, it would be really difficult for them to compromise with the high standards they have set for themselves in May 2014. And I am sure AAP also know that people likes of Mayawati, Laloo, Mulayam Singh, Sharad Pawar, Jayalalita, Karunanidhi are much more corrupt than BJP and maybe even Congress. In best of dreams, AAP can win 50 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and with that number of seats and a vow to not participate in government without clear majority they are irrelevant for the purpose of deciding the next government at Centre. At best they can force the country for yet another election at Centre like Delhi. That would only frustrate the voters, donors and workers of AAP and make them more irrelevant in the repeat elections.

Modi and BJP should avoid giving too much attention to AAP at this stage. They should be mindful of their presence but nothing more than that. Modi and BJP should continue with the strategy they were working with for the last few months and should not look to change the strategy suddenly. Modi should avoid speaking anything about AAP, both negative and positive, at this stage. He should continue his attacks on ‘Shejada’ and Congress. During Lok Sabha elections 2014 AAP is not a real threat and by giving them importance BJP should not lose their own plot. Their strategy is working really fine and giving them great result. Of course BJP should be mindful that there is a major Anti-corruption wave in the country and they should not be seen in the same group as Congress, which AAP will try hard to portray.

AAP is getting lot of airtime in media right now because everybody is interested to know about the fate of Delhi elections and who would form the government. Once President Rule is declared and couple of day passes, media would get something else to focus on and AAP will have to fend for themselves. They would have to go back to strategy room to decide what resources they have in terms of time, money, dedicated workers, top leadership team’s bandwidth and what they can focus on in the next 4 months. They will have to take a call whether they would like to focus on Delhi and try for a clear majority or spread their resources thin between state elections in Delhi, Haryana and Lok Sabha elections. Considering they focused on only Delhi state elections in November when they could have fought elections in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram also, I believe they would be practical about their resource limitations.

 If BJP is able to get the Lokayukta bill passed in the parliament which is acceptable to Anna and Kiran Bedi it would be a good opportunity to disclose the real intentions of AAP party. AAP party would not like Lokayukta bill to be passed right now as they will lose the main election plank. AAP would try to claim that the version of Lokayukta bill that is being passed it watered down version and something unacceptable. Most of the supporters of AAP are not very clear of the details of the bill and if the bill receives the acceptance of Anna, AAP would come across as just any other political party crying foul for vote bank politics. Both BJP and Congress will fight to take credit of the bill and AAP would fight to discredit the bill. That would be advantage BJP. 

Right now BJP should let Congress worry about AAP. BJP should just maintain its focus on its own game and stick to its original strategy.