Monday, June 06, 2005

Next Revolution is the “Broadband Revolution” ……

....and it would not be restricted by per capita computer penetration figure!!

What is Broadband – GOI defines it as internet with a speed in excess of 256kbps. I would define it as “always on internet” something like cable Tv but with two way interaction capability.

Today one friend of mine mailed me back reacting to my open letter to Mr. Anil Ambani saying that Infocomm success will take time due to limited computer penetration, lack of acceptability and comfort with new technology of Indians etc.

Well that’s why I predict that Reliance Infocomm would lead this revolution. The broadband revolution would be similar to the mobile revolution. It would not be powered by computers alone but by Internet protocol Televisions (IPTv). Reliance two years back tied up with Microsoft for manufacture of IPTv. I hope Bill Gates is working as per schedule.

I expect the broadband revolution to be a carbon copy of Mobile revolution. Remember Reliance’s Monsoon Hungama where they offered mobile sets for Rs. 500. Experts touted it as ‘historic blunder’. Well Reliance will repeat the historical blunder to get the same results in broadband market. Everybody noticed the mounting bad debts but nobody noticed how Reliance managed to reach the customer base of 1 crore customer in a span of 12 months when others took a decade to achieve the same. And mind you due to economy of scale they had bought handsets cheap and never made loss on the whole deal.

Same pricing would be used for broadband offensive. Rather than selling computers Reliance would be selling TVs with internet capabilities or IPTv. The price of Tv would be kept around Rs. 3500 or would be bundled with one year free internet usage at Rs. 8000. Considering average price of handsets sold in India is Rs. 5000 it’s not at all steep. And cost of 21 inch base model television is around Rs. 10000. Now look at the television penetration figures and you would get the idea. Infact there is a possibility that there would not be any need of buying a new television, a set top box kind of instrument might be useful to bridge the gap between a TV and a computer.

The major advantage of going through this route would be acceptability and comfort of Indians with the electronic equipment. Show me somebody who donot know how to operate a television and I will show you someone who won’t be benefited by this revolution. If farmers in rural India can utilize the power of internet through e-choupal I don’t see any problem in customer acceptability of new technology. To be frank I also didn’t knew how to operate a mobile handset till few years back. The power of this revolution would be determined by the number of services it manages to shift online.
And considering Indians lazy nature and harsh climate there would be many. Just wait a couple of years to witness a new breed of couch potatoes.

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